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How Many More Americans Might Have Quit Their Jobs Than The Huge Number...
There were a few surprises included in the BLS JOLTS data just released today for the month of November (note: the government has changed its release schedule so that JOLTS, already one month further...
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Taper Discretion Means Not Loving Payrolls Anymore
When Alan Greenspan went back to Stanford University in September 1997, his reputation was by then well-established. Even as he had shocked the world only nine months earlier with “irrational...
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More Questions Than Clarity On Labor Inflation Pressure As FOMC Seeks...
The BLS released its labor turnover data, or JOLTS, earlier today. There have been two main issues with it, starting with Job Openings (JO) which is widely cited along with the unemployment rate to...
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Payrolls and Population, What A Mess
What a time to forget it was the month for yearly benchmark revisions. After making a huge deal out of these spread across all kinds of economic accounts put together by various government agencies, I...
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BLS: We’ll Smooth The Payroll Data; ADP: Hold My Beer
Remember the summer slowdown? Not last year’s, the first one. Back around July and August 2020 when what was supposed to have been a V-shaped recovery fell way off that trend. Instead, blamed on...
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For The Fed, None Of These Details Will Matter
Most people have the impression that these various payroll and employment reports just go into the raw data and count up the number of payrolls and how many Americans are employed. Perhaps the BLS...
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A(nother) Waste of Our Time
It’s been a while, but the BLS finally got around to releasing a near-perfect payroll report. These had been incredibly common even during prior downturns and near recessions, which should only raise...
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Far From Stellar, Employment Likely Went Negative In April
It appears as if most reactions to today’s April 2022 payroll were quite positive, maybe enthusiastic when they should not have been. Though the Establishment Survey – the CES headline number most...
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Neither Confusing Nor Surprising: Q1’s Worst Productivity Ever, April Decline...
Maybe last Friday’s pretty awful payroll report shouldn’t have been surprising; though, to be fair, just calling it awful will be surprising to most people. Confusion surrounds the figures for good...
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May Payrolls (and more) Confirm Slowdown (and more)
May 2022’s payroll estimates weren’t quite the level of downshift President Phillips had warned about, though that’s increasingly likely just a matter of time. In fact, despite the headline...
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